Soybeans (ZS) – Knowledge
Contract specs • Seasonality • Planting & Harvest • COT • Reports • Production • Trading notes
1️⃣ Contract Specifications
| Exchange / Symbol | CBOT (CME Group) / ZS |
|---|---|
| Contract Size | 5,000 bushels (~136 metric tons) |
| Tick Size | 0.25¢ per bushel = $12.50 per tick |
| Point Value | $50.00 per 1¢ move |
| Contract Months | Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Nov |
| Settlement | Physical delivery (Chicago) |
| Margin (Indicative) | ~$2,000 initial / $1,900 maintenance (varies) |
| Trading Hours (U.S. / EU) | Globex (electronic): 8:00 – 14:20 CT → 15:00 – 21:20 CET (Winter) → 16:00 – 22:20 CEST (Summer) |
| Last Trading Day | Business day prior to 15th of contract month |
| Commission Example | $3 / side (AMP Futures) or CFD equivalent |
2️⃣ Seasonality Overview
Soybeans show pronounced seasonal behavior influenced by U.S. planting, South American harvest, and global crush margins. Prices often rally in late winter (Feb–Apr) as traders anticipate U.S. planting risk and tighten supply expectations following the South American harvest.
- 📈 Bullish window: February – May
- 📉 Bearish window: September – November (harvest pressure)
- Neutral: December – January
Seasonal reference: 10-year CBOT Soybeans continuous contract.
3️⃣ Planting & Harvest Calendar
| Region | Planting | Harvest |
|---|---|---|
| USA (Midwest) | April – June | September – November |
| Brazil (Main Crop) | September – December | February – April |
| Brazil (Second Crop) | January – February | May – June |
| Argentina | October – December | April – June |
| China | April – June | September – October |
| Paraguay / Uruguay | October – December | March – May |
4️⃣ COT Insights
Soybeans’ COT profile often highlights managed money trends and commercial hedging from exporters and crushers. Fund long exposure tends to rise during weather concerns or when soybean oil prices strengthen.
- COT Index above 85 → speculative long saturation
- COT Index below 15 → capitulation / seasonal low zone
- Funds accumulate longs from Jan–Apr; liquidate during harvest (Sep–Oct)
- Commercials hedge forward sales aggressively near highs
Reference: CFTC “Soybeans – Chicago Board of Trade”.
5️⃣ Key Reports & Data Releases
| Report | Agency | Frequency / Timing |
|---|---|---|
| WASDE (World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates) | USDA | Monthly, ~10th–12th |
| Crop Progress | USDA | Weekly, Monday 22:00 CET |
| Export Sales | USDA | Weekly, Thursday 14:30 CET |
| Brazil CONAB Reports | CONAB (Brazil) | Monthly |
| Argentina Exchange Reports | Rosario Exchange | Monthly |
| COT Report | CFTC | Weekly, Friday 21:30 CET |
6️⃣ Global Production & Supply
Soybeans are the world’s leading oilseed crop, with global production near ~395 million metric tons annually. The U.S., Brazil, and Argentina account for over 80% of world exports, while China dominates import demand.
- Top producers: Brazil, USA, Argentina, China, India, Paraguay, Canada, Russia, Ukraine, Bolivia
- Exporters: Brazil, USA, Argentina
- Importers: China (by far largest), EU, Mexico, Egypt
7️⃣ Production Costs (indicative)
| Region | Cost per ton | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil (Mato Grosso) | $130 – $160 | Low input cost, high logistics risk |
| USA (Midwest) | $180 – $220 | High land & fertilizer costs |
| Argentina | $150 – $190 | Export taxes & currency risk |
| China | $200 – $250 | Lower yields, high input cost |
8️⃣ Correlations & Proxies
- Strongly correlated with Soybean Meal (ZM) and Soybean Oil (ZL)
- Influenced by USD strength and crude oil (biofuel connection)
- ETF / CFD proxies: SOYB (Teucrium Soybean Fund), Soybean CFD (Pepperstone / ActivTrades)
9️⃣ Trading Notes / My Take
Soybeans are highly liquid and news-sensitive — particularly to South American weather and WASDE revisions. Seasonality and COT alignment often define medium-term swing opportunities. The best liquidity occurs between 15:30–19:00 CET during the U.S. session.
- Seasonal long bias February–May.
- Monitor South American export pace (Brazil harvest).
- Volatility spikes during WASDE and Acreage Reports.