Sugar No.11 (SB) – Knowledge
Contract specs • Seasonality • Harvest cycle • COT • Reports • Production • Trading notes
1️⃣ Contract Specifications
| Exchange / Symbol | ICE US / SB (Sugar No.11 – raw cane) |
|---|---|
| Contract Size | 112,000 lb raw cane sugar (~50.8 metric tons) |
| Tick Size | 0.01¢/lb = $11.20 per contract |
| Point Value | 1.00¢/lb = $1,120 per contract |
| Contract Months | Mar, May, Jul, Oct |
| Settlement | Physical delivery (FOB, various origins) |
| Margin (Indicative) | ~$1,300–$1,900 initial (broker/exchange dependent) |
| Trading Hours (US/EU) | ICE electronic trading spans US & EU sessions (overlapping hours). Note: Verify current hours on ICE; they can change with DST (US/EU). |
| Last Trading Day | Business day prior to the last business day of the delivery month (ICE rules) |
| Commission Example | ~$2.50–$3.50 / side (Futures) or CFD-Äquivalent |
2️⃣ Seasonality Overview
Sugar’s seasonality is driven by Brazil’s Center-South crush (Apr–Nov), India’s monsoon & policy, und Palmöl-/Ethanol-Preise. Typisch: Preisfestigkeit in Q1–Frühjahr (Zwischen-Ernte / Ethanol-Nachfrage), Schwäche-Tendenzen während hoher Crush-Phase.
- 📈 Bullish window: Jan – Apr (inter-harvest tightness, ethanol pull)
- 📉 Bearish window: Jun – Sep (Brazil CS peak crush)
- Turnaround-Zonen: Policy-/Wetter-getrieben (India, BR, El Niño/La Niña)
Seasonal reference: 10–15y average on ICE Sugar No.11.
3️⃣ Planting & Harvest Calendar
| Region | Planting | Harvest/Crush |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil (Center-South) | Varies (perennial cane) | April – November |
| Brazil (North/Northeast) | Varies | Aug – Mar (smaller share) |
| India | Jun – Aug (monsoon) | Oct – Apr |
| Thailand | Jun – Aug | Dec – Apr |
| EU (Beet Sugar) | Mar – Apr | Sep – Jan |
4️⃣ COT Insights
In Sugar dominieren Händler/Exporteure (Commercials) auf der Hedge-Seite; Managed Money folgt Trends, oft in Verbindung mit Energiepreisen und BRL/USD. COT-Extreme funktionieren gut mit Price Action & VWAP.
- COT Index > 85 → Long-Sättigung / Korrekturgefahr
- COT Index < 15 → potenzieller Washout / Reversal
- Commercial shorts steigen i. d. R. mit Preisstärke (Forward-Hedges)
Reference: CFTC “Sugar No.11 – ICE US”.
5️⃣ Key Reports & Data Releases
| Report | Agency | Frequency / Timing |
|---|---|---|
| UNICA (Brazil CS crush volumes, ATR, ethanol share) | UNICA (Brazil) | Bi-weekly / Monthly |
| ISO Sugar Market Updates | International Sugar Organization | Monthly / Quarterly |
| WASDE (global S&D incl. sugar) | USDA | Monthly (~10–12th) |
| India Policy (export caps, MSP, ethanol blending) | Govt. of India | Ad-hoc / Seasonal |
| COT Report | CFTC | Weekly, Fri 21:30 CET |
| FX & Energy (BRL/USD, Crude, Palm) | Market/Exchanges | Ongoing |
6️⃣ Global Production & Trade
Zucker wird überwiegend aus Zuckerrohr (tropisch/subtropisch) produziert; Zuckerrübe dominiert in gemäßigten Zonen. Preise werden stark durch Brasilien, Indien und Thailand bestimmt – plus Energiepolitik (Ethanol).
- Top producers: Brazil, India, China, Thailand, EU, USA, Pakistan, Mexico, Russia
- Major exporters: Brazil, Thailand, (India je nach Policy), Guatemala
- Key importers: Indonesia, China, USA (TRQs), Middle East/N. Africa
7️⃣ Production Costs & Market Drivers
| Driver | Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil / Ethanol Policy | ↑ crude → ↑ ethanol demand → ↑ sugar | Brazil’s ethanol parity & blend mandates |
| FX (BRL/USD) | ↑ BRL → ↓ BR exports → ↑ world price | Exporter currency sensitivity |
| Weather (Brazil CS, India monsoon) | Yield/ATR shifts | El Niño/La Niña relevant |
| Policy (India exports/MSP) | Supply shocks | Key short-term price driver |
8️⃣ Correlations & Proxies
- Energy linkage: Crude (CL), Gasoline (RB) via ethanol
- Vegetable oils: Palm (FCPO) cross-price influence
- FX: BRL/USD (exporter currency)
- ETF/CFD proxies: Sugar CFDs; broad Ag ETFs
9️⃣ Trading Notes / My Take
Sugar ist trendstark und news-sensitiv (Policy & UNICA). Ich achte auf COT-Extreme, UNICA-Crush-Daten, BRL/USD und den Palmöl-Spread – Entries über VWAP/Volume-Cluster. Liquidität gut, aber Vorsicht bei Policy-News.
- Seasonal long bias: Jan–Apr
- Schwächepotenzial: Jun–Sep (peak crush)
- Policy-/FX-Risiko aktiv managen (Stops/Größe)